Shifting Seat Predictions for Canada’s Election

As the Canadian election day approaches on April 28, the equations for forming a government are shifting rapidly. According to the latest estimates from Nano Research, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party may once again find itself leading a minority government. The Liberals have experienced a loss of 17 seats compared to last week’s projections.

Nano Research’s estimates, prepared on April 6, indicate that if the election were held that day, the Liberals would secure at least 156 seats—a decline from the 173 seats predicted on March 30. During the same period, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are projected to win 114 seats, an increase of 8 seats over their previous estimates.

Nick Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nano Research, highlighted that there are still 53 constituencies with very close competition between the Liberals and Conservatives. Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois has seen a significant surge, with projections rising from 4 seats to 17. The NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, remains steady with an estimated 4 seats.