StatCan to publish March jobs data after labour market's rough start to 2026

Statistics Canada is set to release its March labour force survey Friday, offering the latest snapshot of Canada’s job market after a sharp slowdown at the start of the year.

According to a Reuters poll of economists, the economy is expected to have added 15,000 jobs in March. That would follow losses totalling more than 100,000 positions in January and February combined, based on previous labour force data.

The same poll projects the national unemployment rate will edge up to 6.8 per cent. Economists at RBC, however, expect the rate to hold at 6.7 per cent, citing modest hiring conditions that could persist into the second quarter.

RBC analysts say global pressures, including tensions linked to the war in the Middle East and ongoing trade uncertainty, may continue to weigh on hiring in the near term. They also project that slower population growth later in the year could help ease labour market pressures and support a gradual decline in unemployment before the end of 2026.

Friday’s report will be the final labour market update for the Bank of Canada before its next interest rate decision scheduled for April 29.